By Jude McArdle

Experts from UCL’s Constitution Unit gathered their thoughts and some conclusions just 2 days after the UK General Election, setting out what we know, what is likely and what we remain unsure about.

Lead by Professor Meg Russell, Director of the Constitution Unit and Professor of British and Comparative Politics, Dr Alan Renwick, Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit and Dr Jennifer van Heerde-Hudson, Senior Lecturer in Political Behaviour. The Unit researches Elections and Referendums, Parliament, Parties and Politicians, Government, the Monarchy, Church and State. They came together for the workshop, ‘After the general election: what next?’ as part of the university’s It’s All Academic Festival.

Here’s what we took away from the presentation. You can read their latest updates by clicking here.

What The Election Told Us.

• What do Hillary Clinton and Theresa May’s failed campaigns have in common?

Meg Russell drew a line between Hillary Clinton and Theresa May on their failure to win. Neither made a positive case for voting for them, only a campaign against the opposition party. While Jeremy Corbyn focussed on his own policies, Theresa May did seem to stick to well-worn attacks on the leadership and the negotiating skills of her opponent.

• Labour’s leadership challenge has gone. It will be fairly stable now.

In a turn of events, it is May’s leadership that is challenged in the wake of an Election that she hoped would increase her majority. Instead reports say 60% of Conservatives now want her to resign, and after losing seats, her authority has been reduced. Meanwhile, the Labour leadership challenge has been thwarted owing to electoral gains.

• This is the most diverse election ever

Taking a broad view, this has been more diverse than any previous election with a record number of women and Black, Asian and Ethnic Minority MPs elected to parliament (10 more than before the election) and 2 disabled MPs. For the first time the number of women elected to parliament has exceeded the 200 mark, at 208.

• Performance of the electoral system

Experts have said that coalitions are becoming more and more likely which has been the case for the last 2 UK General Elections. This has been the most proportional one since 1945 as we moved towards 2 party politics.

• Voter choice

While it’s too early to say this figure is accurate, there is a concern that 20% of voters were forced to go for a party they wouldn’t otherwise support.

• Divisions among regions lessening

While a different party won in each of the 4 parts of the UK, the disparity was less drastic than in previous elections.

How The Election Affects Power

• Parliament and Power

‘Theresa May said she was calling the election as Parliament was ‘giving her too much hassle.’ If it was giving her hassle before the election, it’s going to get much worse’ (Prof. Meg Russell).

The numbers are so tight. It would be a minority government rather than a coalition and Theresa May would need support from other parties who are relatively united. There are lots of circumstances where they might bite together. Russell said the whipping arrangements are going to be “so much tougher” with every vote counting. Even members of May’s own party will have lost trust in her and are going to be asking hard questions.

Getting legislation through is now going to be very difficult as it has to be proportionate and they could be defeated at any point. Theresa May will want to avoid many divisions and not attempt to pass as many pieces of legislation than if the election result had been different. But there will be some legislation which needs to go through especially concerning Brexit, like the Great Repeal Bill. The Conservative party might not even represent the majority of committee members and any legislation is going to be put through even tougher scrutiny now.

• The House of Lords

The House of Lords is very different from what they were during the 1992 and 1974 governments. They are much more bold and confident to challenge government. May was defeated by a House of Lords majority of 98 to give Parliament a say on her Brexit negotiations. With Labour and Liberal Democrat figures now outnumbering the Conservatives between them, it is even easier to be defeated.

May will also struggle with internal tensions. She’ll be pulled to the right by the DUP but will also need to keep the opposition parties in favour if she has any hope of pushing things through. Being an unelected chamber, the House of Lords doesn’t want to challenge government too much. But they are very responsive to public opinion and the Conservatives did not win the majority of votes.

May will want to put through as little legislation as possible now that Conservatives do not hold a majority government and given all the Parliamentary accountability mechanisms she will have to face:

• Government statements (subject to questioning) held to account.
• Urgent questions (UQs)
• Regular parliamentary questions
• Opposition day debates
• Backbench business committee debates

And many more…

“It’s going to be pretty tough,” says Russell, adding that the immediate consequences for policy are that “foxes are probably safe,” and the “Prospect for second referendum in Scotland looking unlikely.”

• Brexit

“Farage thinks Brexit is in trouble. I think he’s right.” – Professor Meg Russell.

Dr Alan Renwick didn’t have any slides about Brexit as he was formulating his thoughts just before speaking, given there is no precedent for this situation:

“Theresa May is effectively an interim leader. Will the EU want to negotiate with an interim leader?” Negotiations need to have finished by the end of March 2019 which makes timing tight. The Tory party might try to push her out quicker than expected.

In what form will the negotiations take place?

A 2-stage deal process is most likely. First with the withdrawal terms and then trading relationships. Theresa May wants all this done in 2 years and if that wasn’t impossible already, it will definitely be impossible soon.

What’re our options when negotiating with the EU?

1. We could accept whatever deal.
2. We could say ‘no deal’ (‘no deal is better than bad one’). But the DUP won’t accept that as it’ll mean havoc on the border.
3. As the opposition are now more powerful it looks likely we’ll deal on withdrawal terms with a softer form of Brexit 

Could there be a second EU referendum?

The Lib Dems were one of the only parties to support a second referendum on the EU and the SNP have picked up a lot of their support but not because of stance on this issue. If it happens in 2019 it could mean all the negotiating effort is for nothing. It may not be possible legally to rescind on finalised decisions. However, EU leaders, at the moment, are saying that we can change our mind so it is possible. And further down the line? “Who knows. It all depends on public opinion.”

Whatever dissent within the Conservative party the public are privvy to, there will be much more dissent to which we’re not. Many of most important conversations are the ones that take place behind the scenes.

Professor Meg Russell conclusion? To survive, this government will have to have a much softer approach and be prepared to work cross party. Theresa May and Boris Johnson are not up to the job.