December elections resulted in an inconclusive result. But the dead end for government negotiations mirrors questions that go far deeper than the political map, writes Fanny Malinen
The 20 December elections in Spain were expected to be historic, and they were. Since the end of the dictatorship 40 years ago, the political system has been characterised by what the new Spanish parties call ‘turnismo’: a two-party system where conservative PP and social democrat PSOE have taken turns as the party with an absolute majority.
Last month, this entitlement to power was broken: no party achieved an overall majority in the 350-seat Congress. The governing party PP remained the largest with 123 seats, down from 186 in 2011. This gives it the mandate to intend to form a government. But the only obvious combination to reach a majority would be a ‘grand coalition’ PP-PSOE: the social democrats declined to 90 seats, compared to 110 four years ago.
Podemos came a close third by percentage of votes, which gave it 69 seats. It was the only success story in the elections; but the left party is too radical for the others to form a coalition with.
No agreement
Thus far, PP has not got close to forming a government. PSOE is making increasingly loud noises that the winner of the elections should try to form a government, but not keep trying forever. If there is no agreement, new elections will follow in early Summer.
PSOE does not want to join a PP-led government as a junior party, for obvious reasons. Although they are far from socialist, signing up to further cuts would be the nail in their coffin. PSOE could reach a majority with the help of small left-wing and regional parties plus Podemos, but the latter has set an independence referendum in Catalonia as a prerequisite for their joining any coalition. PSOE would never even dream of allowing this. The other new party, neoliberal Ciudadanos with its poster boy leader Albert Rivera, did much worse than expected and its 40 seats will not solve the problem although they would be PP’s most natural allies.
It is like the old logic puzzle: how do you get a cabbage, a sheep and a wolf across the river when the wolf tries to eat the sheep which in turn tries to eat the cabbage. Except that in this case, the wolf would have no interest in sharing the boat if they didn’t need someone to bail out water to keep it afloat while they steer.
No nos representan – they don’t represent us
It is hard to overestimate the importance of this re-writing of the political map. Forty years of democracy is a short time: I never realised this before spending two months in the Spanish state in the run-up to the elections. There is no UKIP-style right-wing populist party in the country, which I always assumed was due to the progressive nature of the society – in the end, when we had some thousands participating in the Occupy movement, the Spanish figure was in the millions.
But I encountered a very different political reality. As a Catalonian friend put it, there is no need for a fascist party when the ruling party happily accommodates fascists and hard-line Catholics. The fall of Franco was not due to a democratic revolution: before his death at the age of 82, he handed power to families and institutions that have ruled the country since. Those still loyal to the dictator publicly commemorated the 40th anniversary of his death in November – compare this to Germany, where the public use of Nazi symbols is illegal. The lack of a peace and reconciliation process in Spain is perhaps best shown by a 1977 amnesty law that still protects Franco-era crimes.
But as the amnesty law is being challenged in the Basque country by pro-independence, left-wing ruled Pamplona city council, political change is on its way. Within the last year, local elections have brought progressive mayors in power in several cities including Madrid and Barcelona, a pro-independence majority to the Catalonian parliament and now a complete shake-up of the Congress.
Many of these political earthquakes have their roots in the 15M movement that took to the squares in May 2011, indignated by not only the economic crisis but also corruption and lack of real democracy.
One of the testimonies to the strength of the movement is a series of court cases against leading bankers and political figures. A citizens’ initiative initiated legal proceedings against Rodrigo Rato, formerly a leading figure in PP, chairman of Spain’s biggest bank Bankia and managing director of the IMF. But he is not alone: over 2,000 public figures are set to stand trial for corruption. The list includes high-profile politicians, powerful businessmen who paid them kickbacks, as well as the King’s sister and her husband.
There would of course be no concentration of power at this scale if it did not include the media. One only needs to look at the election coverage: you would not believe PP lost over 40 seats – they are celebrated as the winner of the elections. In contrast, everyone probably knows by now that PSOE had their worst result in history. A great deal of scaremongering also arises from Podemos’s alleged ties to Venezuela: a party born from academia, many of the leading figures including leader Pablo Iglesias had studied Latin American movements and gone on to doing consultancy work for Chavez government.
The rise and dangers of Podemos
Despite the panic they have caused in the old establishment, Podemos are not as radical as they originally promised to be. They have scrapped key points in their manifesto, including basic income and a debt audit leading to rejecting part of the country’s debt. Practices such as participatory ‘Circles’ that were supposed to form the base of the party have also been lost along the way. Despite their claims to represent the legacy of the 15M movement, none of the party leaders were actively involved in the mobilisations or have strong ties to social movements. This is especially striking in the context of such strong social movements: 15M gave birth to a strong network of participatory groups working for radical alternatives.
Between 6 and 9 million took part in the movement in 2011, and over three-quarters of the population agreed with the protesters’ grievances. It is a missed opportunity to capitalise on these movements without offering as radical of a change as the country would have been ready for.
Podemos’s success was due to regional alliances – they are the only party to recognise that Spain is a “plurinational” state and respect Basque, Catalonian, Galician and other regional identities. This is also clear from looking at the election results on the map: unlike all other parties, Podemos grew strongest in the peripheries.
But this is yet another reason we should be careful in singing the praise of Podemos, whilst welcoming the winds of change they represent in Spanish politics. Whether their alliances in the elections truly reflect Iglesias’ convictions or were just a pragmatic tool to achieve victory remains to be seen. At the moment it is well possible that the only forces that prevent Podemos from capitulating are parties such as Barcelona En Comú, the governing party in Catalonia’s capital that came into power truly off the back of social movements and shared a list with Podemos in the general elections.
There is no Spain
It is therefore no coincidence that the Catalonian independence referendum has emerged as a deciding factor in the negotiations for Spanish government. PP leader Mariano Rajoy is using all the leverage he can get from the threat Podemos with its allies presents to Spain’s unity to try and persuade PSOE to join him.
The issue has not risen out of nowhere: Catalonia’s Parliamentary election on the 27th of September sent shockwaves through Spain. A broad pro-indpendence coalition fell just short of a majority, which makes them rely on the assembly-based CUP. The party, who’s politics feature a strong mix of feminism, ecology and anti-capitalism, uses a direct democracy model in which they refer all their decisions back to all members.
Thus the majority in the Catalonian Parliament supports unilaterally declaring independence. This comes off the back of a banned independence referendum in 2014 and the Spanish government using all possible tools to prevent the process that could lead to independence. Stakes for them are of course high: the Spanish state is really a collection of regional identities under the power of one nation – a rule that once stretched even further across Europe and across the ocean.
20th of December was a historic day when the political map of the Spanish state was rewritten. But the 2015 elections might lead to even more profound changes; a new page in the history on the Iberian peninsula. It is no wonder the old establishment is clinging onto power, trying not to give in to those they say want to “break Spain”.
